Plan your first pop-up with numbers, not a hunch

How break-even is worked out

Break-even units = fixed costs / contribution per unitContribution per unit = price x (1 - payment fee rate) - unit cost

The divisor is contribution, not gross margin, because what one extra sale actually leaves in your hand is what pays down the fixed costs. The payment fee comes off the price first, then the unit cost. If that figure is zero or below, every sale widens the loss and no break-even point exists.

Where the numbers come from

Most fixed costs are already settled. The stall fee and the fixtures provided are in the brief from the organiser, and transport is a quote you already have. You know your price and your unit cost too. That leaves only visitor count and conversion rate genuinely uncertain, which is also where the result moves. So this calculator does not offer one forecast: it runs demand at 0.7x, 1x and 1.3x and shows all three.

What this does not answer

It does not work out how many people will show up. That is an input. It also leaves out tax, business registration, and food or safety permits. The result is what happens if your assumptions hold, so writing down the actual figures afterwards and finding which assumption was wrong is worth more for the next event.

Questions that come up

What if I have no idea how many visitors to expect?

Ask the organiser for the count from the last edition, which is the most accurate source available. If nobody knows, start low. A plan that breaks even on a low turnout is safe, while a plan that only breaks even on a high one is a bet on turnout.

What conversion rate should I use?

It is the share of people who walked past your stall and actually bought something. It swings hard with price and category, so no general figure is offered here. Instead, halve whatever you entered and check whether you still break even.

Do I lose money if I do not sell all my stock?

Leftover stock is unit cost you did not recover at this event, and it is not a loss if you can sell it at the next one. The stock warning fires in the opposite case: demand outlasted your stock, so you failed to sell what you could have sold.

How do I set the payment fee rate?

Use the published rate from your card reader or payment provider. If a large share of your sales end up in cash, your real cost is lower than this, so the result stays on the conservative side.

Is it right to leave staffing at zero?

If you run the stall alone there is no outlay, so zero is correct. It does mean your own labour is folded into the profit, though. Putting an hourly rate in separates profit that came from the trading from profit that came from your own hours.

Why is tax not in the calculation?

The answer changes completely with business type and turnover, so committing to one figure would hand you a wrong number instead of no number. Check the tax question separately.